Heading Towards Recovery
Although overall US retail sales rose 3.7% in early 2025, fashion sales fell sharply. Footwear sales dropped 1.6%, while clothing and accessories slid 10.3%. Still, second-quarter performance showed signs of improvement, with brands like Designer Brands noting stronger back-to-school momentum.
Leading the Way Once Again
Online sales continue to drive growth. Fashion e-commerce reached $103.3 billion in the first half of 2025, up 10.4% year-on-year. Online now accounts for 15.1% of fashion retail, boosted by major events like Amazon Prime Day and “Black Friday in Summer.” Consumers increasingly value convenience and discounts, pushing retailers to compete not only domestically but with international sellers.
Waiting for More Concrete Results
Economic uncertainty remains. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at 4.3% while watching inflation and employment trends. Consumer sentiment has dropped 21.4% since December 2024, particularly during months of tariff announcements. Rising footwear prices highlight the pressure: women’s shoes rose 2.8% in August, children’s 0.9%, while men’s dipped slightly.
Almost Under the Radar
US footwear imports reached $15.5 billion in value for January–July 2025 but volumes fell 2.1% due to higher tariffs. Import duties nearly doubled year-on-year, strongly suggesting retail prices will rise further. With 98% of US footwear sourced abroad, tariffs hit the sector especially hard.
Outlook
Retailers face an uphill battle as trade policy and tariffs remain uncertain. The National Retail Federation warns that instability could raise consumer prices even more. While online growth offers hope, the broader fashion retail sector must brace for continued volatility.
